The expansion of public procurement

The U.S. economy may expand areas of the state order

No one has to be convinced that the U.S. presidential election – an event not just American. It is possible, as our State Duma and ordenonosnogo Vladimir Churov, to surprise the world by revealing ulcers American electoral system, but it is undeniable that the U.S. economy – the most powerful in the world, which means that the world depends on the fact that it will happen.

From this we can do different conclusions. You can blame the United States is that they have become a hotbed of the last global crisis, is that the U.S. economy – a vampire, because the whole world is working on it, putting their money into U.S. securities. In these arguments, there is a reason, but it is precisely due to the scale of the U.S. economy.

Therefore I propose to think about other things – about how Barack Obama’s victory will affect economic fashion, and above all the fashion of economic regulation. Remember: in crisis-free (or malokrizisnye) for developed countries in 1980-1990’s winning “Reaganomics” became a universal password neoliberal approach to economics. Without the “Reaganomics” and Russia would not have been Gaidar’s team, that is, most likely, it would still appear, but not necessarily exactly the same set-up, and first of all the “shock therapy” (definitely not Gaidar, and Jeffrey Sachs), with whom she made history. Alexander Livshits said courses of the first government of Boris Yeltsin “gaydaronomikoy”, and it was not only “the tag.”

Since then, in the minds of economists and political unrest is growing minds, it warms the crisis has not yet received an adequate response. Therefore, the results of the American elections will necessarily translated to the global economy. So, the Russian ones.

What can change? The first answer is: not much. It is no accident the day the markets reacted moderately Obama victory, but not growth, and decline. Live market expectations, and Obama – not a joker, his “Suit” is already known.

After all, is not the president determines the policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA. It can, of course, replace the head of the main regulator, but does not determine its specific policies. Is there any mystery in the policies pursued by Ben Bernanke? Through the efforts of the Fed and the U.S. economy, and the world is racked astronomical amounts of money. Fed audit results showed, in particular, that in the period from December of 2007 to June 2010, the U.S. and foreign banks were the main U.S. bank more than $ 16 trillion, and it is a modern annual U.S. GDP. Throwing new dollars continues growing rapidly, the Fed took the example of open European Central Bank. However, the calculation of the fact that the tide of dollars and euros will charge the economy afloat until it is justified.

This is the main stumbling block. Once the economy is not in a hurry to come to life, so to start the traditional market mechanisms need something else. What is it?

Constructive response is not heard. The more freedom in his prediction.

To begin recall that many politicians (including Dmitry Medvedev), as well as prominent economists (including Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF), compares the state, is today in the world economy, the Great Depression. Think about it, those who brought it or not, but a comparison of the alarmist – The Great Depression led to the Second World War, and there are political scientists, primarily domestic (including Mikhail Leontiev), which is adjusted to the end of this parallel. But for most (we live in the age of the show) The Great Depression – is not so much a specific historical phenomenon, how frightening image. Meanwhile, if we restrict economic regulation, the response to the Great Depression was the “New Deal” of Roosevelt, who we know has transformed from Soviet textbooks political economy of capitalism in industrial society. This is a regulatory response to the Great Depression.

What is the effect that the Fed first lowered its rate to a minimum, and then took up buying securities from the market to continue to throw him some money? The answer may not include your
in the American tradition, but it is: if the Fed’s efforts are not enough, the next move is possible to enhance the role of the state and the expansion of the U.S. economy, saying in Russian, area of public procurement. This turn in the history of the United States has been, and it just dictated the Great Depression. It is clear that the direct repeat will not, but do not exclude the threshold variations on this theme.

The main thing is to regulate the fashion may change. If the azimuth changes present on the map of economic theories, the vector is of neo-liberalism to neo-Keynesianism. If just on the map, it may look like this: from Washington to Beijing.

This is a new and wide enough for a trend, affecting not only the economy but also politics. How much it will be demanded and implemented in practice depends on the success or failure of the anti-crisis strategy already in place.

p.s. Anna Marushko.